Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
